๐Ÿ† Market Outperformer Identified

Q1-2025 Performance Analysis

3000-4000 sq.ft Villas

Prepared by Viren (+971 58 587 7330)

Overall Dubai Market
(Full Year)

+30.6%
AED 522.4B โ†’ 682.5B
2024 vs 2025 Total Transactions
VS
๐Ÿ‘‘

3000-4000 sq.ft Villas
(Q1 Only)

+76%
AED 1.8B โ†’ 3.2B
Q1-2024 vs Q1-2025

Q1 Growth Performance

+76%
3000-4000 sqft villas in Q1-2025 vs Q1-2024

Market Outperformance

2.5x
Q1 villa segment grew 2.5x faster than the full year market average

Q1-2025 Volume

3,177M
Total AED value in Q1-2025, up from 1,809M in Q1-2024

Market Position

#1
Most in-demand villa size in Dubai's property market

Growth Comparison

3000-4000 sqft Villas (Q1 Period) vs Overall Market (Full Year)

Why 3000-4000 sq.ft Is The Smart Investment

๐ŸŽฏ

The Market's Sweet Spot

In just Q1-2025, this size category achieved 76% growth compared to Q1-2024, significantly outpacing the overall market's 30.6% full-year growth rate. This explosive Q1 performance signals unprecedented demand.

๐Ÿ“ˆ

Exceptional Demand Dynamics

Growing 2.5x faster than the broader market average, this size range is capturing extraordinary buyer preference in just the first quarter of 2025. Both end-users and investors are actively seeking this optimal villa configuration.

๐Ÿ’Ž

Premium Value Resilience

Properties above 5.5M AED in this size category show robust Q1 transaction volumes, proving that discerning buyers willingly pay premium prices for this ideal 3000-4000 sqft villa size.

๐Ÿ“Š Emaar's Independent Villa Launch History

Emaar's Villa Development Timeline

Tracking independent villa project launches from 2014 to present

2014
4 Projects Aseel Villas Hills Grove Hills View Yasmin
2015
1 Project Azalea
2016
4 Projects Sidra Fairway Vistas Sidra 2 Parkway Vistas
2017
2 Projects Sidra 3 Golf Links ES
2018
1 Project Golf Place
2019
1 Project Golf Place 2
2020
No Launches
2021
4 Projects Caya Elie Saab Palm Hills Majestic Vistas
2022
3 Projects Fairway Villas ES Farm Gardens Hill Crest
2023
2 Projects Fairway Villas 2 ES Palmeira
2024
5 Projects Fairway Villas 3 ES Golf Lane Mirage Farm Gardens 2 Farm Grove 1&2
2025
7 Projects Chevalia Estate Montura 1 & 2 Tierra Ostra Mareva Avelia Ovelle
2026
?

๐Ÿ’ฐ Real-World Appreciation: Aldar Haven Case Study

Launched October 2024 - Performance Over 25-26 Months

๐Ÿ† Key Finding: Villas Significantly Outperform Townhouses

Over 25-26 months: Villa appreciation 24.8-32.3% vs Townhouse 13.3-17.8%

๐Ÿ’Ž Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

With only ~35% of capital invested so far, actual returns are significantly amplified

Villa ROIC: 71-92% | Townhouse ROIC: 38-51%

๐Ÿ˜๏ธ 3-Bed Townhouse

BUA: ~2,300 sq.ft

Plot: ~1,800 sq.ft

Launch PSF: AED 1,200

Recent Resale PSF: AED 1,360

+13.3%
Price Appreciation (25-26 Months)

Return on Invested Capital

38.0%

(Based on ~35% capital invested)

๐Ÿ˜๏ธ 4-Bed Townhouse

BUA: ~3,122 sq.ft

Plot: ~2,776 sq.ft

Launch PSF: AED 1,105

Recent Resale PSF: AED 1,302

+17.8%
Price Appreciation (25-26 Months)

Return on Invested Capital

50.9%

(Based on ~35% capital invested)

๐Ÿก 3-Bed Villa

BUA: ~3,000 sq.ft

Plot: ~3,600 sq.ft

Launch PSF: AED 1,200

Recent Resale PSF: AED 1,530

+27.5%
Price Appreciation (25-26 Months)

Return on Invested Capital

78.6%

(Based on ~35% capital invested)

๐Ÿก 4-Bed Villa

BUA: ~3,340 sq.ft

Plot: ~5,000 sq.ft

Launch PSF: AED 1,285

Recent Resale PSF: AED 1,700

+32.3%
Price Appreciation (25-26 Months)

Return on Invested Capital

92.3%

(Based on ~35% capital invested)

๐Ÿก 5-Bed Villa

BUA: ~4,454 sq.ft

Plot: ~5,442 sq.ft

Launch PSF: AED 1,250

Recent Resale PSF: AED 1,560

+24.8%
Price Appreciation (25-26 Months)

Return on Invested Capital

70.9%

(Based on ~35% capital invested)

๐Ÿ’ก Understanding ROIC (Return on Invested Capital)

As per Haven's payment plan structure, buyers completed 35% of the property value in Nov 2025. This creates a powerful leverage effect on returns.

For example: A 4-Bed Villa with 32.3% price appreciation means a 92.3% return on your actual invested capital (32.3% รท 35% = 92.3%).

๐Ÿš€ Villas deliver 71-92% ROIC vs Townhouses at 38-51% ROIC

๐ŸŽฏ Understanding Price Ceiling Factors

๐Ÿ—๏ธ Product-Level Factors

  • Supply Dynamics: Number of available units affects pricing power
  • Plot Size: Larger plots command premium per square foot
  • Layout & Design: Functional layouts with optimal space utilization
  • Property Type: Villas typically have higher PSF ceilings than townhouses
  • Finishes & Quality: Premium materials and construction standards

๐ŸŒ Market-Level Factors

  • Competition: Comparable projects in the area set price benchmarks
  • Developer Premium: Emaar vs other developers - brand value matters
  • Supply Alternatives: Availability of similar products in nearby communities
  • Location Premium: Proximity to key amenities and infrastructure
  • Market Sentiment: Overall buyer confidence and investment appetite